Although the most recent price increase put out by US domestic tube mills succeeded in pushing prices upward, many are wondering if US HSS prices are at or near their peak.
Current price points, which are still holding at $56-$57 cwt. ($1235-$1257/mt or $1120-$1140/nt), ex-mill, are up substantially from the same reporting period last year, when US HSS spot market transaction prices were trending between $50-$51 cwt. ($1102-$1124/mt or $1000-$1020/nt), ex-mill.
Part of the concern that prices may have finally peaked relates to the May scrap forecast; all indicators point toward a $10-$15/gt correction from price points seen last month.
“Opinions seem to be mixed as to the direction of the market, and we won’t have a clearer picture of what’s actually going on until after we find out what’s going to happen with the Section 232 exemptions,” sources note. “A lot of people are worried that hot rolled [pricing] has peaked, and could correct, and a lot of other people are wondering if prices will go higher depending on the May 1 ruling.”
For now, market players report that buyers are being cautious, adding a market wide reluctance to take on heavy inventory positions.