US export scrap prices have declined through the last two weeks. On March 9, SteelOrbis reported an ex-US deal from the East coast to Turkey for HMS I/II 80:20 scrap at $303/mt CFR, shredded scrap at $308/mt CFR, and bonus grade scrap at $313/mt CFR. On the West coast, scrap export prices firmed up after the Japanese scrap auction that was also held on March 9.
Since then, Turkish import prices began to decline in recent transactions, Chinese steel export prices have markedly declined, and Japanese H2 scrap export offers began to decline to Vietnam, South Korea and Taiwan.
The most recent deal of ex-Canada shredded scrap at $274/mt CFR Turkey places HMS I/II 80:20 scrap at a theoretical price of $269/mt CFR Turkey. According to sources early in the week ended March 24, US origin HMS I/II 80:20 was being offered at $280/mt CFR Turkey, thereby bringing the export price for shredded scrap down to $285/mt CFR Turkey. Early in the week, exporters were heard inviting bids in the hopes of closing transactions. Bids were reportedly made by Turkish mills for US origin HMS I/II at $270-275/mt CFR Turkey, but no ex-US deals have been confirmed at this range to date.
According to an East coast source close to SteelOrbis, expectations are high of a deal at $270/mt CFR Turkey for HMS I/II 80:20 closing prior to the end of March. While the declining export prices are moving expectations for domestic US scrap down $15-25/mt in the April buy-cycle, domestic dealers also see it as necessary for exporters to sell scrap to the export markets to limit sales of shredded scrap by exporters to the inland regions.
Ex-US HMS I/II 80:20 is being heard offered at $270-275/mt CFR Taiwan, $2-5/mt lower than the $275-277/mt CFR Taiwan range heard yesterday. According to a source, quiet offers for HMS I/II 80:20 may be as low as $267-268/mt CFR Taiwan.