Transaction prices for the most recent cargos of US export scrap to Turkey may have crept up since our last report two weeks ago, but sources close to SteelOrbis say there is still a lot of uncertainty in the market.
Things have been mostly quiet for the past week or so, according to export yard sources, who point out the last ex-US deal that was concluded for HMS I/II 80:20 scrap was booked at about $313/mt CFR. But at this point, the situation seems conflicted to buyers and sellers on opposite ends of the field. Turkish producers say that finished steel prices are still trending soft, and are reluctant to pay higher prices due to ever tightening profit margins. On the other hand, mills recognize that the winter months take a toll on scrap collection efforts, and want to make sure they buy enough scrap before “bad weather hits” so they can maintain production levels.
Export yards, however, are still wanting to sell at higher prices than they’ve recently been able to achieve, and some may hold back some of their inventories in hopes of getting better prices come January. And while some are talking about taking a temporary step away from the export market and selling into the US Ohio Valley, others point out that rail car availability is light. “Sure prices out there are better, but if a mill wants 120 rail cars and a yard can only ship 35 because there just aren’t enough railcars available, sellers may wind up getting shot in the foot because the order will get cancelled.”