During the second week of February, SteelOrbis sources had mixed opinions on how US scrap prices would trend in March. Some believed that domestic prices could trend down by $10/gt ($10/mt), while others believed that sideways or up $10/gt could be in the cards.
In fact, the only thing that sources could agree upon was that the landscape would be clearer in a week.
“As of today, I am feeling a bit optimistic and thinking strong sideways. It’s nice to see export picking up,” a Midwest source said, citing improved cargo prices off the US East coast.
For example, on Tuesday of this week, SteelOrbis reported that an Iskenderun region-based steel producer had purchased 20,000 mt of HMS I/II 90:10 scrap from the US at $282.5/mt CFR for March shipment. According to this deal, the price point for HMS I/II 80:20 was estimated at $279.5/mt CFR; the previous ex-US booking for HMS I/II 80:20 was reported at $275/mt CFR.
And while increased export prices are a good sign, the source continued, “other than what’s happening with the export market, there’s really no reason for pricing pressure. Perhaps we’ve finally hit some stability.”
Other sources mostly agreed with an “up” market during next month’s buy cycle.
“I feel like the market will settle at strong sideways, to maybe weak sideways, if the export market doesn’t stay sideways to up a bit,” the Ohio Valley source said. “Business is still okay at our mills and the mild winter has kept scrap moving.”
“I’m thinking the market could come up $20/gt ($20/mt), if not a bit more,” another source added. “Most of the mills are running well and demand for scrap in our area is likely to increase considerably.”