Last week, scrap market sources throughout the US were somewhat mixed in their opinions for September prices: while some thought prices on prime grades could potentially start firm, others believed that cuts and shred could soften. However, the majority said they believed the market would trend sideways.
This week, the differential opinions have become less pronounced, as nearly all sources polled said they think the market will stay level, although some still believe the market will have some regional variances.
“Flat is my guess for September in the Northeast. It’s been very quiet this month and there’s not much scrap coming into the yards,” a source said. “The Southern markets [seem to be] showing some signs of strength. I believe that any Southern mills looking for a normal compliment of scrap will have to pay up.”
A second source agreed. “[Predictions] are all over the board,” he said. “The [scrap] yards are very slow so [prices] will be a matter of [which mills] are melting.” According to media reports, four Nucor mills and US Steel’s Mon Valley works will be out for maintenance sometime next month.
Sources in other parts of the US say they think the market will likely remain level. “There’s not too much more clarity on this but I’m more in the sideways camp at this point,” the source added. “I think a short-term [pricing] floor is being established in a couple of markets.”
Sources point out that the downward spiral for US flat products finally seems to have ended, which could potentially prevent mills from taking scrap prices any lower.
A final source said he’s still hearing predictions that are all over the map, which has him thinking that prices will stay steady.
“I’ve heard that primes could go up, but it sounds like demand has slowed,” he said. “I’ve heard contradicting opinions on the market. Usually that means sideways.”
For now, it’s unclear whether September’s buy cycle will begin before or after Labor Day weekend.