According to several sources close to SteelOrbis, the US is “seeing different patterns in the steel business.” Both the potential for further protectionist activities by the present administration and the regional demand variations are providing a checkered outlook in the short-term and long-term expectations of US domestic scrap prices.
On the East coast, domestic scrap prices on heavy melt and shredded scrap are expected to reflect the effects of lower export demand. Exporters may move on a deal with Turkey for scrap or, given the strength in the domestic market for volume along with higher prices than the export market, offer shredded volumes inland that could erode domestic prices $5-10/mt compared with early April East coast settled prices.
In the Midwest and Ohio Valley, several sources are reporting tight supply and continued strong demand, especially on shredded scrap and P&S scrap. According to several regional sources, shredded and heavy melt could “slide down a little” from early April regional settled prices, but they could also have the potential of trending sideways due to the tight supply.
Regardless of region, sources are reporting expectations of a wider variance between shredded and heavy melt scrap compared to prime grades. According to a source, prime grades are expected to increase their premium compared to shredded up to $100/mt.