At the beginning of the current week, two ex-US scrap deals in Turkey done late last week pushed prices down significantly. In the following days, a deal was heard with the HMS I/II 80:20 scrap price at $440/mt CFR and it supported the view that deep sea scrap prices were still under pressure from buyers. The negative mood in Turkey’s steel market has been impacting the international market. Although the general idea in the market is that they will ask for lower prices for deep sea scrap, their window for waiting is now smaller and there is much ground still to cover for May shipments.
In the short sea segment, the ex-Bulgaria HMS I/II 80:20 scrap price is now at $400/mt CFR Turkey as fixed in a deal to the Marmara region, $5/mt lower than the levels recorded in ex-Romania for the same grade yesterday. Short sea scrap sellers are under significant pressure from the Turkish mills.
As of today, there is a high number of scrap offers to Turkey but market players agree that sellers are not aggressive in their prices. Sellers’ ideas for European HMS I/II 80:20 scrap are still at around $440s/mt CFR, while ex-US material is at $445s/mt CFR. Turkish mills are asking for at least $5-10/mt below this range. There is hope for Turkish mills’ return to the market in the coming week as the cut in energy prices has provided producers with higher margins. Some players both in the buyer and seller segments believe that, when deep sea scrap demand returns, prices may soften to recover quickly in each deal. SteelOrbis hears that Turkish producers have started to make price inquiries for deep sea scrap late this week, supporting the idea of a recovery in demand. However, no significant rise is expected before finished steel demand revives in Turkey or in Turkey’s export markets. Collection prices at EU ports for HMS I/II 80:20 scrap is at €370/mt DAP, and, with the euro gaining strength against the US dollar, European sellers have small to zero room to go below their targeted price levels. Having said all that, the main problem remains the lack of finished steel sales. Spot rebar prices in Turkey have declined to TRY 16,000/mt ex-works today in all regions of the country, with some lower levels even heard but not confirmed at the time of publication.
Under the current conditions, the deep sea benchmark HMS I/II 80:20 scrap price in CFR terms has decreased by 3.41 percent week on week. Prices are now 1.24 percent lower month on month in the deep sea segment, with prices being in the range of $435-444/mt CFR
This week, after news that the price range for the most recent ex-US scrap cargo sales into Turkey were pushed down significantly, predictions for April have started to shift. Upward price expectations are now fewer in the US and a market player stated that the market “does feel softer than it did earlier in the month.”
SteelOrbis has confirmed that the dock delivered price range for HMS I/II 80:20 scrap in New York is now being heard at approximately $350-370/gt, against $360-370/gt on March 9. While the dock delivered price range for HMS I/II 80:20 scrap in Boston is now being heard at $325-350/gt, dock delivered HMS I/II 80:20 scrap in Los Angeles is now at approximately $290-300/gt.
SteelOrbis has learned that the current price for Mexican domestic shredded scrap is now MXN 9,700/mt ($512/mt), compared to MXN 9,700/mt ($504/mt) last week. Additionally, HMS I/II scrap prices are being heard at MXN 8,300/mt ($438/mt), compared to MXN 8,200/mt ($426/mt) last week.
Domestic scrap prices in Italy have remained mostly stable. The silence in Turkey’s import scrap market is one of the reasons, while the finished steel market in Italy is also weak. The Italian scrap market is still positive. It is observed that HMS (E3) scrap prices in Italy have been at €370-390/mt delivered.
Today, March 31, SteelOrbis has learned that another German sub-collector received bids from Belgium for HMS I/II 70:30 scrap at €360/mt DAP, for HMS I/II 80:20 scrap at €370/mt and bonus grade scrap at €380/mt DAP.
Tokyo Steel, the leading EAF-based steel producer in Japan, announced its third cut in its local scrap purchase prices on March 28. The reduction was by JPY 1,000/mt and is the result of lower demand both from the domestic and export markets. Tokyo Steel’s general range for H2 grade scrap moved down to JPY 51,000-53,000/mt ($390-406/mt), depending on the mill, while shindachi scrap prices of Tokyo Steel moved to the new range of JPY 53,000-55,000/mt ($406-421/mt).
The Vietnamese scrap market has been very silent this week as the market tries to adjust after Vietnam’s Ministry of Industry and Trade (MOIT) announced that it has decided to terminate the safeguard duty on imports of billet of certain origins. Japanese bulk H2 scrap offers to Vietnam were at around $430/mt CFR late in the current week. Ex-US containerized HMS I/II 80:20 scrap has been offered to Vietnam at $410-415/mt CFR. Ex-Hong Kong HMS 50:50 scrap offers to Vietnam this week have been at $428/mt CFR.
As of today, March 31, Tokyo Bay FAS-based prices for H2 grade scrap are at JPY 50,000-51,500/mt ($375-386/mt).
Taiwan’s import scrap market has continued to soften in the current week. Since finished steel demand, particularly demand for rebar is almost nonexistent in the country, there is no appetite for import scrap. As domestic scrap flow in South Korea is better than average, market players report that there is no reason for prices to move up.
This week, a deal for ex-US HMS I/II 80:20 scrap in containers to Taiwan was done at $395/mt CFR. The lowest offer levels for Japanese H1/2 50:50 scrap by bulk to Taiwan are now at $430/mt CFR.