Demand has remained relatively stable in the US domestic rebar market over the last week, and sources continue to report deals for certain buyers below the general spot price range. Still, some sources are wondering if US rebar mills will attempt to shore up prices with another official increase announcement in the near-term.
In mills’ favor, the last price increase they announced in late February absorbed into the market with little resistance, although some buyers were able to cut deals. Additionally, one source noted that expectations for lower net earnings in Q1 might inspire major US rebar mills to bump up profit margins in Q2 with a price increase. As for import competition, the US steel industry as a whole was granted a win this week when the US Court of International Trade ruled in favor of Section 232 tariffs in a lawsuit initiated by the AIIS. More legal and legislative challenges to the tariffs remain, but sources also note “it’s looking more and more like the USMCA will go through with quotas instead of tariffs” against imports of Canadian and Mexican steel.
However, while import offers are currently a “marginal factor” in US domestic rebar prices, sources say mills shouldn’t assume that situation is permanent. Additionally, US domestic scrap prices are expected to trend neutral in April after rising in March, removing another bit of leverage for US mills to raise rebar prices.
Overall, expectations for US domestic rebar prices in the near-term are leaning toward stability, although one source noted that “you never know what mills are going to do.” Until anything changes, US domestic rebar spot prices are steady this week in the range of $35.50-$36.50 cwt. ($710-$730/nt or $783-$805/mt) ex-mill in the Midwest, and $37.00-$38.00 cwt. ($740-$760/nt or $816-$838/mt) ex-mill on the East Coast.