After the latest attempt at a price increase within the US domestic rebar market was thwarted by a strong dip in scrap prices this month, sources tell SteelOrbis that US rebar mills still have confidence in an eventual ruling in their favor once the Section 232 investigation officially concludes in January. Results were promised this past June, but have since been stalled as the Trump administration focuses on tax reform. At the worldsteel conference this week, Nucor CEO John Ferriola said he expects a comprehensive trade remedy after the January deadline, and many sources in the US rebar market still contend that if sweeping steel import tariffs are implemented, US mills will take advantage of the supply shortage and increase rebar prices.
One source tells SteelOrbis that mills were “really hoping for a reason to raise prices at least one or two more times” before the end of the quarter in order to boost year-end financial results. However, in the absence of a Section 232 ruling, and considering expectations of a sideways scrap price trend in November, mills will have little support for a price increase. As such, sources do not expect the current US domestic rebar spot price range to vary from $33.25-$34.75 cwt. ($665-$695/nt or $733-$766/mt) ex-mill in the near term.