US rebar prices have remained the same since last week, and with the continued slow demand and slight downward trend for US scrap prices projected for October, it looks like domestic rebar prices do not have much of a chance to rise in November, and more likely to trend sideways for another month.
After quietly dropping prices by $20 to $40/nt ($22/mt or $44/mt or $1.00 cwt. to $2.00 cwt.) for October 1 shipments, Nucor will announce its November price decision for rebar within the next couple weeks once the October scrap price movement becomes clear. Currently, US shredded scrap prices are expected to come down by an average of $15/long tons in October. Still, producers are motivated to keep the market price sentiment positive to prevent further price softening, especially as they have yet to recover all of the previous raw material price hikes which took place in recent months. For these reasons, there is a strong likelihood that Nucor and other US rebar producers will attempt to keep prices stable in November.
For now, most domestic rebar offers continue to range from approximately $24.50 cwt. to $25.00 cwt. ($540/mt to $550/mt or $490/nt to $500/nt) ex-mill.
As for import rebar offers, prices have also remained stable since last week; however, Mexican offers may decline slightly over the next couple week to reflect a decrease in Mexico's domestic rebar prices which took place this week. Meanwhile, Turkish mills are reportedly having difficulties filling their rebar order books, which could lead to some softening in Turkish offers as well. Turkish mills’ buying prices of scrap have come down slightly in the last few weeks and this may spread to finished product offers also. However, any softening of import prices should not be significant and as Turkish mills are currently priced so far out of the ballpark, a slight decrease in Turkish prices is not going to affect the overall picture for the US.
For now, most Mexican rebar offers for the US continue to range from $23.50 cwt. to $24.50 cwt. ($518/mt to $540/mt or $470/nt to $490/nt) delivered to Texas, while Turkish offers are found at a range of $26.00 cwt. to $27.00 cwt. ($573/mt to $595/mt or $520/nt to $540/nt) duty-paid, FOB loaded truck in US Gulf ports.
Preliminary census data from the US DOC show that US imports of rebar dropped in August from July, to 21,197 mt. This compares to the final import tally for July of 29,540 mt and imports of 75,503 mt imported in August 2008. Imports from the US' two main import rebar sources, Turkey and Mexico, both dropped in August from July, with Mexican imports totaling 13,736 mt and Turkish tons totaling 4,135 mt. Other import rebar sources in August were Dominican Republic, with 3,171 mt, and Germany, with 154.4 mt.