The US rebar market is currently on cruise control at a lower than usual speed; however, for some it's time to think about first quarter deliveries. Typical import distributors in the US are now placing most of their orders domestically because of the lack of competitive import offers available. Few import offers have gained acceptance for January and February deliveries so far. Domestic prices are just too close to current import levels, and there aren't any major signs that they will increase anytime soon.
Domestic rebar mills are not super-busy since distributor inventories are still on the high side, but they are getting a decent amount of orders since import arrivals for the rest of the year will be very slim. There are still discounts given to large buyers, but mills should be able to keep their official prices steady through the end of the year.
Most domestic offers continue to range from $30.90 cwt. to $31.40 cwt. ($681 /mt to $692 /mt or $618 /nt to $628 /nt) FOB mill. The pricing trend is flat, though some discounts are expected to continue to be offered until Q1.
On the import side, spot prices are still lower than replacement costs, but most traders are not willing to sell much at these lower numbers, preferring to hold onto their inventories on the ground for now. However, year-end inventory tax concerns may cause traders to start liquidating their inventories, come November.
New import rebar offers for January and February deliveries continue to range from $29.00 cwt. to $30.00 cwt. ($639 /mt to $661 mt or $580 /nt to $600 nt) FOB loaded truck, in US Gulf ports, with the exception of Mexican offers which stand at approximately $28.50 cwt. ($628 /mt or $570 /nt) FOB loaded-truck in Houston.
In general, distributor inventories are slowly going down, and there is some interest in fixing January/February arrivals. There are very few competitive import offers available, however, so import bookings are expected to be light as more material will be booked domestically. Asian prices continue to skyrocket, so Turkey is now the only game in town when it comes to imports to the Gulf. The Turkish longs markets are currently weak, but with their high scrap and freight costs, Turkish mills are not willing to lower rebar offering prices for the US. Recently, the Turkish asking price actually went up some, and therefore the general pricing trend for import rebar is slightly up.
Preliminary license data from the US Import Monitor show that in October 2007 (through October 30), Turkey was virtually absent from the US market. Taking its place as the largest import rebar source for the US in October was Mexico, with 22,264 mt. After Mexico, the most tonnage came from Malaysia (8,087 mt), Spain (6,097 mt), Dominican Republic (5,098 mt), and Brazil (4,475 mt). Total rebar imports in October were 51,978 mt, compared to 82,190 mt in September, and 143,718 mt in October 2006.