The last month of the year is typically slow for the US domestic rebar market, due to holidays along with reduced end-use activity, such as construction, in the winter. The only thing that would boost activity, sources say, is the rumored price increase mills could announce next month, to take effect in January. Buyers who typically wait on the sidelines in December would be encouraged to make purchases ahead of the increase, but sources are now wondering if the price increase will even happen.
Already, sources were skeptical about how much of the speculated $1.00-$1.50 cwt. ($20-$30/nt or $22-$33/mt) price increase would be absorbed into the market, and now some are saying conditions are too uncertain for mills to make such a move. Imports remain a “big question mark,” as trade negotiations with Canada, Mexico, and the European Union seem to be hinging on exemptions from Section 232 tariffs. Additionally, Turkey still remains subject to 50 percent tariffs, which could revert back to 25 percent “any day, on a whim,” sources say.
As such, it appears to be more likely that US domestic rebar prices will stay somewhat level in the wide range of $35.00-$39.00 cwt. ($700-$780/nt or $772-$860/mt) ex-mill, with some larger buyers getting deals below the lower end.