US import wire rod prices remained stable this week, although sources tell SteelOrbis that “the time to buy is now” considering the “murky outlook” for import prices in the New Year. Most of the US’ major sources of import wire rod have already left the market due to prohibitively high final antidumping margins, and newer sources that have cropped up in the aftermath are vulnerable to potential trade action once the long-delayed Section 232 investigation results are announced by Jan. 15, 2018 at the latest. The president will still have 90 days to take action after the results are made public, but sources say the results themselves will have an immediate impact on the import market.
Ahead of the announcement, sources expect a rise in import offers as soon as companies return to operations after the holiday, due to positive expectations for US domestic wire rod prices. While sources were initially skeptical about the chances for the $2.25 ($50/nt or $50/mt) price increase, predictions of another US domestic scrap price increase and high construction demand have some sources convinced that most of the increase—if not all—will be absorbed in the market.
Higher US domestic wire rod prices will enable US-based traders to lift their wire rod offer prices, and booking activity could see a “robust jump” depending on the margin between US domestic and import wire rod prices in January. For now, offers of imported wire rod in the US domestic market from Germany are still around the level of $31.00 cwt. ($620/nt or $683/mt) DDP loaded truck in US Gulf ports, while imported wire rod in the US domestic market from Egypt is still in the range of $30.50-$31.75 cwt. ($635/nt or $700/mt) DDP loaded truck in US Gulf ports.