US domestic rebar spot prices gained new flexibility last week after August scrap prices settled down approximately $20/mt, and early predictions for another scrap downtrend in September could give buyers more leverage in negotiations with mills. However, competing market factors could erode some of that leverage, namely the swift removal of Turkey from the import rebar market.
After Donald Trump decided to double the Section 232 tariffs against US steel imports from Turkey, the extra 25 percent cost has rendered previously reasonably-priced Turkish offers far too high for consideration. With other major sources of US import rebar still subject to tariffs as well, the move has provided US rebar mills with a strong advantage in negotiations.
Sources tell SteelOrbis that it is yet unclear which market factor—lower scrap prices or fewer import options—will have a stronger impact on US rebar spot prices. For now, prices are steady but still relatively flexible in the wide range of $39.00-$42.00 cwt. ($780-$840/nt or $860-$926/mt) ex-mill, with prices depending on customer size and order size.
However, sources are cautious of this newly flexible trend going forward, with many predicting that US rebar mills will raise prices again when activity picks up again after summer.