Conflicting expectations in the US domestic rebar market has led to another week of spot price stability. On one end of the prediction spectrum, sources say US rebar mills are eager to raise prices, but they’re waiting for “the right opportunity.” On the other end, sources say there is too much uncertainty in the market regarding imports for domestic mills to make any moves.
Speculation has increased in the past week that the US will soon adopt import quotas to replace Section 232 tariffs against Canada and Mexico, which could open up the US market to Mexican rebar once again. Additionally, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said today that the Trump administration is considering a retraction of the 50 percent tariff against imports of Turkish steel now that the conflict that precipitated the increase—the imprisonment of US pastor Andrew Brunson—has been resolved. Whether that means tariffs against Turkey will reduce back down to 25 percent or be rescinded entirely is not yet clear, but even the renewal of the 25 percent level would be sufficient to bring Turkish rebar flowing back into the US import market.
With the possibility of lower-priced rebar imports on the horizon, sources say US rebar mills are cautious about their pricing policy, which means US domestic rebar spot prices could stay level in the near-term. This week, prices are unchanged in the wide range of $36.00-$39.00 cwt. ($720-$780/nt or $794-$960/mt) ex-mill, with deals as low as $35.00 cwt. ($700/nt or $772/mt) ex-mill for the largest customers still being heard.