After pushing US domestic rebar prices up once again last week, US rebar mills are reportedly “skeptical” of the near future considering the uncertainty in the import market. Current exemptions to the Section 232 tariffs will expire on May 1, and there has been much speculation about countries on the exemption list negotiating for a permanent—and in many cases, more favorable—position. If more exemptions are announced, or tariffs swapped out for quotas, the return of lower-priced imports to the market will have a “chilling effect” on US rebar’s strong uptrend, even if import tonnage levels drop.
Sources tell SteelOrbis that current US domestic rebar spot prices are stable at $41.50-$42.50 cwt. ($830-$850/nt or $915-$937/mt) ex-mill for small to medium-sized buyers, and around $37.00-$38.00 cwt. ($740-$760/nt or $816-$838/mt) ex-mill for large distributors. Demand remains strong and lead times are still extending into the summer months, which has some sources wondering if import demand might rise sooner rather than later due to the short supply of domestic product, even though most US long product mills are running at over 90 percent their capacity rate.