Although last week it appeared that a surprise uptrend in February US domestic scrap prices—due to severe winter weather affecting supply—could give US domestic rebar mills the leverage they need to push through a price increase. However, expectations for the soon-to-be-settled February scrap buy-cycle are much more reserved. New predictions point to a sideways trend for US domestic shredded scrap this month, which sources say virtually guarantees US rebar prices will move sideways as well.
However, some sources speculate that imports could shift leverage to the buyer side, as newly-released US import data show 102,492 mt in rebar import permits for January, almost double the import permit level in December. While import offers for future arrival remain close to US domestic spot prices, sources note that already-arrived positions are usually “ripe for discounts” on a customer-by-customer basis, giving US rebar buyers an alternative to US domestic material.
For now, US domestic rebar spot prices remain at $34.50-$35.50 cwt. ($690-$710/nt or $761-$783/mt) ex-mill in the Midwest, while spot prices on the East Coast are stable at $36.00-$37.00 cwt. ($720-$740/nt or $793-$816/mt) ex-mill.