While US domestic rebar mills have faced little to no resistance in pushing through price increases so far this year, sources say the uptrend—largely bolstered by Section 232 tariffs—is “not built to last.” Many countries are currently lobbying for exemptions to the tariffs, and once the situation gains some clarity and “buyers have a solid idea of what import prices are going to be versus domestics,” US domestic rebar prices are expected to level out, and possibly even decline near the end of Q2.
Specifically, if sources of US rebar imports are able to negotiate a quota instead of a tariff, as South Korea has done, the adjustment of import prices to a pre-tariff level will be “a death blow” to high US domestic rebar prices, especially without the backing of raw material prices—expectations for US domestic scrap prices in May are already pointing sideways to slightly down.
For now, the top end of US domestic rebar spot prices is still around $40.50-$41.50 cwt. ($810-$830/nt or $893-$915/mt) ex-mill. Meanwhile, deals for large customers are moving to the higher end of last week’s $36.00-$37.00 cwt. ($720-$740/nt or $794-$816/mt) ex-mill deal range, indicating mills are still aggressively pursuing their “over $40.00 cwt. ($800/nt or $882/mt) ex-mill for everyone” strategy. However, sources warn that the higher US domestic prices go, “the harder they’re going to fall this summer.”