The Turkish domestic rebar market was very active at the beginning of this week. After the Turkish mills Kardemir and Isdemir announced price increases, prices on a US dollar basis rose. Rebar prices in the domestic market are currently at $600/mt ex-works, excluding VAT. Although the market slowed down towards the middle of the week, prices are still at high levels.
Turkish mills are offering rebars for export at around $590/mt FOB on actual weight basis for October shipments. Balkans countries such as Romania seem to be the best markets for Turkish rebar exports. Furthermore, demand from Lebanon and Syria is also turning towards Turkey due to the increase in Ukrainian rebar prices. There are slight movements in some countries in southern Europe, such as Italy. However, Italian trading firms prefer to make purchases from domestic producers for September shipments.
The price level of imported rebar in the UAE market is at around AED 2,350-2,370/mt ($640-645/mt) delivered to site on a theoretical weight basis for 3- and 5-month month deferred payment, excluding VAT. Although the domestic producers raised their prices for September in late August, retail sales prices have been moving on a stable trend. After the Turkish producers concluded sales at $610-615/mt on theoretical weight basis for September shipments in August, no bookings have been heard for a while. Big customers are trying to put pressure on prices since they are not able to predict the direction of prices.
Although demand is not very active in Italy in the post-holiday period, prices managed to rise €30/mt ($41/mt) with the help of traders' low stock levels. Producers' base prices for the domestic market are currently at €270-275/mt ($366-373/mt). The price level of rebar in the local Italian market is at around €470-485/mt ($638-658/mt) delivered to warehouse in northern Italy, on actual weight basis with 60-day open account, excluding VAT. Italian rebar offers for export rose slightly, now in the range of €435-440/mt ($590-597/mt) FOB. The increases in Ukrainian producers' prices have contributed to the increased demand from countries such as Algeria and Libya.
Producers in Spain are not able to increase their prices to the desired levels. Base prices are currently at €280-285/mt ($383-390/mt). Although the AENOR-certificated delivered to warehouse prices are at €500-505/mt ($684-691/mt), trading firms are able to find prices below these levels.
In August, rebar prices in Greece were at €450/mt ($615/mt) delivered to warehouse. However, producers are expected to increase their prices by €20/mt ($27/mt) next week.
The situation in northern Europe is slightly worse than in southern Europe. The market in Germany and the UK is very adverse. However, the fact that Polish producers have raised their price lists to €500/mt ($684/mt) delivered to warehouse this week may have a possible effect on other northern European countries, and especially on Germany.
Ukrainian producers are offering rebar for export at $560/mt FOB and above for October shipments. Ukrainian rebar prices have risen in parallel with the billet price increase. In addition, the fact that last month's prices were supported by demand from the Middle East through mid-August has also contributed to the Ukrainian producers' rebar price increase.
The situation is not very clear in the European, Black Sea and Middle Eastern markets. While prices are rising in some regions, uncertainty dominates other regions. In particular, market players in the Middle East hesitate to predict the future situation. If producers are able to resist the pressures coming from the currently-ambiguous markets, the markets may be able to make a strong start to the winter season.