The Turkish rebar market started to rise at the beginning of this week in both the domestic and export markets. In the beginning of the week, the rebar producers were selling 12 mm rebar to the domestic market at the price level of around TRY 810-815/mt ($575/mt excluding VAT). Towards the end of the week, since the $/TRY exchange rate had seen some decline, the dollar basis prices have increased to $590/mt. Due to the strong order situation in exports and the minimum stock levels of domestic traders, the Turkish producers were able to get the market to accept their prices.
The Turkish rebar export offers were at the level of $570-575/mt FOB at the beginning of this week, slightly increasing to $575-580/mt towards the end of the week. Thanks to their sales to the Far East, Southeast Asia and Iran in October, the Turkish producers have filled up some of their orders for December delivery in spite of the lack of activity in the USA and Europe. Most of the producers have finished their offers for December shipments and have moved immediately to make offers for January shipments, thanks to their sales to the Middle East in November.
The price level of imported rebar in the UAE market is at AED 2,300/mt ($627/mt) delivered to site on a theoretical weight basis for 3- and 5-month deferred payment, excluding VAT. Lately, the deals with this market have been at the level of $605-610/mt CFR on a theoretical weight basis. A little tonnage at the price level of $615/mt CFR on a theoretical weight basis was even heard this week. The new offers of Turkish producers are at the level of $620/mt CFR on a theoretical weight basis for now. Due to the situation of the domestic market retail prices, traders in the market are trying to resist the rise in import offers. The traders may also be more active in buying if an upward trend is seen in line with the pressure from the import market.
The situation in southern Europe shows a clear difference from that seen in Turkey and the Middle East. Spanish producers, especially, have been fairly aggressive lately.
The producers in the Spanish domestic rebar market decreased their prices by approximately €30/mt ($43/mt) in the past week. The price level of B500S 12 mm rebar in the local Spanish market is at around €435-440/mt ($635-642/mt) delivered to warehouse for 30-day deferred payment, excluding VAT. It is heard that the Spanish producers have been offering at the price level of below €400/mt ($584/mt). Spanish producers have been maintaining their aggressive stance in the export market, just as they have been doing in their domestic market. Also, they have been making offers to the other European countries, North Africa, and even to some Middle East countries such as Israel.
The prices in the Italian domestic rebar market have been stable for some time. Although the producers have been trying to increase the prices, the price level of rebar in the local Italian market is still at around €415-420/mt ($606-613/mt) delivered to warehouse in northern Italy, on actual weight basis with 60-day open account, excluding VAT. Despite the fact that the rolling mills and the electric arc furnaces began production slowdowns and some of them even began to make ad hoc production stops, producers are not able to achieve their desired higher price levels. This situation was due in the main to the overall sluggishness in the European market along with the Italian producers' recent competition with the Spanish and Ukrainian producers in their traditional export markets, such as Algeria and Southern Cyprus.
In the export market, the latest exports of the Italian producers have been at the price level of €400-405/mt ($584-591/mt) FOB. They have increased their offers to €415/mt ($606/mt) FOB. It seems a bit unlikely that the Italian producers will be able to export at their current prices, even taking into account Arcelor Mittal Kriviy Rih's last price increase, which was announced in the current month.
Ukrainian rebar producer Arcelor Mittal Kriviy Rih is offering rebars for export to the Middle East at around $550/mt FOB on actual weight basis for late December shipment. As a result of the increasing billet prices in the CIS market, the Ukrainian rebar offers for export have also started to rise as of this month. Arcelor Mittal Kriviy Rih is not selling material to traders for Algeria; instead, the producer is concluding direct sales at special prices to its warehouse in this North African country, which is the most important export market for Ukraine.
It seems that the upward trend in the Far East had made a positive impact on the Middle East, Turkey and the CIS markets. However, the European market does not seem affected by this movement yet; however, if the upward trend in the markets in question continues, some recovery may be seen in the European markets with the help of the strong raw material and billet prices.