Although there is not a solid consensus in the US domestic rebar market regarding the near-term price direction, many sources believe an uptrend is “almost guaranteed.” US domestic rebar prices traditionally rise in the first quarter, mainly due to weather-related price increases in the US domestic scrap market, but sideways to down trends in January and February have “messed up the norm,” one source said.
Still, the predicted uptrend in US scrap prices for March is expected to incentivize US rebar mills to raise prices as well, even as import rebar arrivals continue to flow into US ports. The price margin between already-arrived rebar imports and US domestic rebar offers is relatively slim, and as such sources do not expect imports to compete as much as they have historically. Some US rebar mills are taking advantage of the depressed import situation by building new mills in traditional import markets such as Florida.
Although prices are predicted to rise, US domestic rebar spot prices are level this week in the range of $34.50-$35.50 cwt. ($690-$710/nt or $761-$783/mt) ex-mill in the Midwest, and $36.00-$37.00 cwt. ($720-$740/nt or $793-$816/mt) ex-mill on the East Coast.