After two-month lull, will Iranian rebar rise in January?

The rebar market in Iran has been characterized by stagnation for the past two months. The price of 8-25 mm rebar has already fallen to IRR 7.20-7.60 million per mt ($758-800/mt)  ex-warehouse. ehran. Azarbaijan Steel Co. is selling its 14-25 mm rebar at a price of IRR 7.15 million per mt ($752/mt) ex-work for immediate  delivery. Meanwhile, in sales completed the week before last Esfahan Steel Co. sold rebar at a price of IRR 7.05 million per mt (742$/mt) ex-works for immediate delivery. A few days ago Iran National Steel Industrial Group sold 8-20 mm rebar at a price of IRR 6.60 million per mt (694$/mt) ex-works with delivery within 90 days.
 
The high levels of rebar inventory and the cold winter weather conditions have already succeeded in created stagnation in the Iranian long products market (especially as regards rebar and I-beam) even though global prices are still on the way up. Iran imported about  900,000  mt of rebar in the 21.03-20.11.2007 period, according to Iranian  customs data. Such a  large  import  volume, which is very high compared to the 125,000 mt for the corresponding period of last  year, has helped build up high inventory levels.
 
The Iranian longs market last experienced a rising  trend in October 2007, when prices of 8-25 mm rebar peaked at the incredible level of $840-870/mt  ex-warehouse. However, the market  collapsed some time later and the sliding trend has continued up to the present time. Nevertheless, in spite of the many development  projects, including projects for residential construction, launched during the current year by the Iranian government and the private sector, the Iranian  authorities have managed to control  market prices for most long  products, especially for rebar and  I-beam which are principally used in construction. 
 
As regards the overall Iranian steel market, given the global steel price increases, the high inflation rate in Iran (more than 25 percent) and the rising import costs due to the UN sanctions, most Iranian steel traders expect a booming trend in the coming months, especially when customers rush to conclude purchases ahead of the Iranian New Year holiday (21-23 March 2008).
 
Exchange rate on the free market: US$1 = IRR 9,500