Where will US HRC, CRC prices stabilize?

Friday, 15 July 2022 22:43:32 (GMT+3)   |   San Diego
       

US sheet steel prices have continued their downtrend, sources note, as varying opinions as to where prices might land are being discussed throughout the marketplace. 

Current US HRC prices are being heard at $45.50-$47.50 cwt. ($1,003-$1,047/mt or $910-$950/nt), FOB mill, against a range of $49.50-$51.50 cwt., ($1,091-$1,135/mt or $ $990-$1,030/nt), FOB mill, two weeks ago.

CRC prices have also softened in the past 14 days and are now being heard at $68-$70 cwt. ($1,499-$1,543/mt or $1,360-$1,400/nt), FOB mill. This reflects an approximately $4.50 cwt. ($77/mt or $70/nt) dip from levels heard during the first week of July.

Similar to previous weeks, deals below these ranges, for both products, are available based on volume.

“I think the big question right now is whether the HRC downtrend slows down, and prices start to stabilize, or if prices will continue to trend down slowly between now and next year,” a source said, adding that he believes that HRC prices are “bound to settle below $40 cwt. ($882/mt or $800/nt).  

“There’s a ton of new capacity that’s coming online this year, and when you look at that, plus inflation, plus other economic factors, I think we’re going to see a lot more downward price pressure on hot rolled.”

For example, Cleveland-Cliffs is expected to restart its No. 5 blast furnace later this year.  The additional tons that will be added into the marketplace by Nucor Gallatin, Steel Dynamics (SDI) and North Star BlueScope, must also be considered.

A second source, on the other hand, said he believes that prices could start to stabilize in the not-too-distant future.

“Hot rolled has fallen for the past 12 weeks in a row, and while the downtrend started gradually before picking up some steam, it now seems to be slowing a little,” he said. “We might see some stability come into play, and we could start to waffle in the mid $40s for a bit.”

Others, on the other hand, say they still think that the price slide isn’t done yet.

“We’re not at the bottom yet, so I don’t think there’s anyone who is rushing out to stock up on anything just yet,” he said. “What I can tell you is that a lot of us buyers are having a really hard time getting a feel for the market.”


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