US domestic flat rolled steel mills may not be sending out price increase letters to their customers, but that’s not to say that prices aren’t still firming.
The most commonly heard spot market price transaction range for US domestic HRC is up by $1.00 cwt. ($22/mt or $20/nt) on the top end since our last report a week ago, and today, prices are trending at $44-$46 cwt. ($970-$1014/mt or $880-$920/mt), ex-mill, although some sources have reported transactions taking place up to $0.50 cwt. ($11/mt or $10/nt) above this range.
Some believe that prices could inch up further in the short term, a trend which would be largely attributed to the Section 232 tariffs that have been imposed against Canada and Mexico.
At the same time, buyers throughout the US have reported a flurry of offshore booking activity, since import HRC—despite the 25 percent tariff—is still being offered $2-$4 cwt. ($44-$88/mt or $40-$80/nt) below ex-mill offers. It’s further believed that offshore mills may become increasingly aggressive with pricing in Q3 and Q4. As such, those import arrivals would place significant downward pricing pressure on the US spot market.
Some industry experts are predicting that US HRC prices could fall by as much as $10 cwt. ($220/mt or $200/nt) in early 2019. For now, buyers continue to be cautious with their inventory levels, and activity remains robust.