In the current state of the marketplace, there is one thing that buyers and sellers of US HRC can agree on: until the Trump administration decides where it stands on trade policy, the future of market pricing remains unclear.
Trump administration officials are set to render a final decision on Section 232 tariffs and quotas by the end of the month, and initially, HRC market players felt that one of two scenarios would play out. One, that if widespread tariffs were implemented, prices for both import and domestic steel would rise across the board, and since foreign steel would still be priced less than domestic, import arrivals would place downward price pressure on the domestic spot market.
The second, and now seemingly more likely scenario, involves quotas.
“Quotas are designed to create shortages,” a source said. “Shortages lead to higher prices. I’ve been telling all of my customers to brace themselves for Q4.”
Current US HRC pricing, which once again remains in the range of $43-$45 cwt. ($948-$992/mt or $860-$900/nt), ex-mill, is expected to hold stable until the Section 232 tariff / quota decision is finalized.