A prior surge in offshore HRC bookings may have resulted in record-level HRC import arrivals, but sources close to SteelOrbis believe that import arrivals toward the end of the year could hit historic lows due to the Section 232 investigation.
Data from the US Department of Commerce shows that during the month of March, the US imported 223,158 mt (census data) of HRC from global sources, which included 104,799 mt from Canada, 41,090 mt from Korea and 17,198 mt from Mexico. In contrast, import HRC tonnages from those same countries in March 2017 were calculated at 78,371 mt, 25,948 mt and 1,894 mt, respectively.
Current import arrivals, however, have not had an impact on US HRC pricing, which once again remains in the range of $43-$45 cwt. ($948-$992/mt or $860-$900/nt), ex-mill.
It’s believed that US HRC pricing will remain stable through the rest of May, with the expectation that prices could resume an uptrend once final decisions are made with regard to Section 232 import quotas.
Also of note is the upcoming Mexican elections, as the country will elect a new president on July 1. Global news outlets this week have reported that the leading candidate, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, is a critic of both free trade and the Trump administration. In March, he was quoted as saying that “Mexico will not be the piñata of any foreign government.”
He has, however indicated that if a NAFTA deal is solidified before he takes office, that he would honor any deal that has been made by the outgoing administration.