Pricing within the US domestic and import HRC spot markets have stabilized since our last report a week ago, although sources close to SteelOrbis say the recent flurry of offshore order activity, which has been largely spurred by attractive import pricing, has many within the US flat rolled steel market feeling as if they’re “staring off the edge of a cliff.”
“We all know the fall is coming. We can see it,” a source said. “The biggest question we all have is when the tumble is going to start and how far we’re going to fall until we hit the bottom.”
Some have also expressed concern that members of Congress would succeed in overturning Section 232 tariffs, which “Would likely cause prices to plummet back to where they were at the beginning of the year,” although others point out that Donald Trump would likely veto any legislation that came to his desk.
Current expectations are that domestic mill prices could fall by $5.00 cwt. ($110/nt or $100/nt) before the end of 2018.
In terms of today’s pricing, US domestic HRC pricing is still trending at $44-$46 cwt. ($970-$1014/mt or $880-$920/mt), ex-mill, while US import HRC in the domestic market from Korea, Turkey, Egypt and Germany are being offered at $37.50-$38.00 cwt. ($827-$838/mt or $750-$760/nt), DDP Loaded Truck in US Gulf coast ports, although some trader sources believe that in the upcoming weeks, offshore mills may reduce their prices even further.