With the recent price increase announcement having trickled its way into the marketplace, buyers of hot and cold rolled coils (HRC and CRC) have resumed a position of wait-and-see, with many unsure as to how, and if, the $40/nt increase will be absorbed.
Mills are steadfastly trying for the price push- that at least is certain. However, considering the overall situation of overproduction, short lead times (approximately three weeks for HRC, four for CRC), and stagnant order activity, confidence that mills will be able to maintain solidarity in pricing levels remains weak.
"This is a great opportunity for the domestic mills to get pricing up if they would hang together, but I don't see that they will," commented one buyer, further indicating a belief that deals will continue to be cut in order for mills to secure orders on their books.
Another challenge on the horizon is the ever-looming contract season- and the fact that failing to get prices up, or worse, seeing them soften, could prove to be disastrous to both mills' and service centers' bottom lines.
For now, though, the trend for HRC and CRC is neutral to slightly up, with order activity over the next couple of weeks expected to be light while domestic buyers watch-and-wait to see how the dust settles prior to making a purchase.
Looking south of the border, Mexican HRC has remained neutral since our last report a week ago, while offerings of CRC continue to fare relatively quiet. Chinese CRC has also held neutral, as has CRC offerings out of Brazil, although it's been indicated that a strong push is being made to sell more toward the upper end of that range, if not slightly higher.
Cwt. Metric Ton (mt) Net ton (nt) Change from last week US domestic HRC $28-29 $617 - $639 $560-$580 neutral CRC $33-$34 $728 - $772 $680-$700 neutral Mexican HRC $29-$30 $639-$661 $580-$600 neutral CRC --- --- ---- ---- Chinese CRC $38-39 $838 - $860 $760-$780 neutral Brazilian CRC $34.50-$35.50 $761-$783 $690-$710 neutral
*Mexican offers are FOB loaded truck US border states.
**Chinese and Brazilian offerings are duty-paid FOB loaded truck, US Gulf ports.