US domestic cold rolled coil prices have been enduring a slow downward drift since the latter part of 2018, and it was largely suspected that flats mills would announce a price increase after the first of the year as a means of preventing further erosion.
January prices have continued to erode, and this week, mills finally pushed out that announcement. Domestic producers have indicated they will be raising prices by $2.00 cwt. ($44/mt or $40/nt), effective with all new orders, yet as of today, prices have not moved.
Current US CRC spot market are still being heard in the range of $39-$41 cwt. ($860-$904/mt or $780-$820/nt), ex-mill; the question as to whether the increase will gain traction has yet to be answered.
“I personally don’t think it’s going to stick,” one source said, noting that market fundamentals, such as short lead times and soft January scrap prices, don’t support higher prices. Others are a bit more skeptical.
“If more customers were holding back purchases than we suspected, and everyone jumps back into the market because they think that prices have finally bottomed out, a sudden increase in orders could push the market up,” he said. “Sometimes you just have to shake the tree to see what falls out.”
In terms of offshore bookings, sources say interest is still light, as local buyers are waiting to see how things pan out domestically. The most recently heard offers for US import CRC in the domestic market from Russia, Vietnam were heard in the range of $39-$40 cwt. ($860-$882/mt or $780-$800/nt), DDP loaded truck in US Gulf cost ports; prices from Mexico are also still being head in that same range, FOB Texas.