In our previous analyses, we reported that flats prices would maintain their uptrend for a while. In recent days, as these predictions started to become true, higher than expected increases have been observed. It may be said that the warm weather and the arrival of spring have activated the market to a certain extent. With the improved trade volume and the rising raw material costs, the rises in flats prices are exceeding expectations with the passing of each day. In particular, large manufacturing companies have been put in a difficult situation with the price hike announced on Friday for the Turkish domestic market by the country's largest steelmaker Erdemir. In addition, the strong market price increases for flats have negatively affected companies making offers for projects based on estimations of the future market situation. Especially after the latest price hike implemented by Erdemir, the sales activities of companies in Turkey's Eregli region have come to a halt.
In the Turkish domestic market, the ex-warehouse prices for Romanian, Ukrainian and Bulgarian-origin flat products vary in ranges of $940-950/mt + VAT for 2 mm HRC, $1,010/mt + VAT for 1.5 mm HRC, $920-930/mt + VAT for 2.5-12 mm HRC, $1,010-1,020/mt + VAT for 0.4-0.6 mm CRC, and $1,010-1,020/mt + VAT for 0.7-2 mm CRC.
The following table presents the domestic sales prices (excluding VAT) for import flat materials on a weekly basis from the end of 2007 up to the present.
| 2007 | 2008 | ||||||||||
| Week | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
Thickness (mm) | Product | $/mt | ||||||||||
1.5 | 740 | 750 | 760 | 800 | 800 | 800 | 820 | 840 | 880 | 940 | 1,010 | |
2 | 690 | 700 | 710 | 740 | 740 | 740 | 760 | 780 | 820 | 870 | 940 | |
2.5 - 12 | 665 | 670 | 680 | 720 | 720 | 720 | 740 | 760 | 800 | 850 | 920 | |
0.4 - 0.6 | 730 | 740 | 760 | 830 | 830 | 830 | 850 | 870 | 910 | 940 | 1,000 | |
0.7 - 2 | 740 | 750 | 770 | 820 | 820 | 820 | 840 | 860 | 900 | 930 | 1,010 |
As indicated in the table, prices for import flat materials in the Turkish domestic market have marked a continuous uptrend from the 48th week of 2007 to the ninth week of 2008. As regards the future, although there is an expectation that Erdemir will make another increase, sales in the domestic market, particularly in Turkey's Eregli region, have come to a halt. Although demand for flat steel in the Turkish domestic market is weak, it is expected that prices will continue their upward movement. Prices and demand - two factors that are usually dependent on each other - have recently been following different trends. The main reason for this is the fact that the changes in the prices for materials from Russia, Bulgaria, Romania and Ukraine have directly affected the Turkish domestic market.