US flat rolled steel prices have remained stable week-over-week, although some sources close to SteelOrbis note that they’re unsure how long current price points can last.
“We think we’ll start to see some downticks toward the end of Q2 or in the beginning of Q3 once some of the imported material starts to arrive,” a source said.
For example, yesterday SteelOrbis reported that traders are offering US import HRC coil from South Korea, for July arrival, approximately $56 cwt. ($1,235/mt or $1,120/nt), FOB Houston. In contrast, domestic HRC, which has lead times spanning between 7-9 weeks for new production, is trending at $64-$66 cwt. ($1,411-$1,455/mt or $1,280-$1,320/nt) FOB mill.
A similar situation has been reported for domestic cold rolled coil (CRC). Current spot market prices are still being heard in the range of $74-$76 ($1,631-$1,676/mt or $1,480-$1,520/nt), FOB mill, unchanged in the past seven days. However, offshore offers are being heard “roughly $10 cwt. ($110/mt or $100/nt) below that range.
“Service center inventories are increasingly healthy and more production is coming online,” another source said. “When you consider that, and the fact that Goldman Sachs is forecasting HRC prices at roughly $42.50 cwt. ($937/nt or $850/nt) in Q3, the idea that this nearly year-long uptrend is nearing the end of its rope, starts to make sense.”