Local Indian hot rolled coil (HRC) trade prices have lost ground amid renewed pressures from weakening industrial demand, rising imports despite the depreciation of the Indian currency, and sentiments taking a hit from delays in the imposition of any tariff barriers to inward shipments, SteelOrbis learned from trade and industry circles on Monday, December 30.
Sources said that HRC trade prices have lost INR 500/mt ($6/mt) to INR 48,300/mt ($565/mt) ex-Mumbai and are also down INR 500/mt ($6/mt) to INR 49,800/mt ($582/mt) ex-Chennai in the south. At the same time, according to sources, some distributors in trading hubs were heard to be continuing to confirm bookings at INR 46,700/mt ($546/mt) net of discounts, against INR 47,000/mt ($555/mt) last week.
According to sources, against the backdrop of the slowdown in overall manufacturing growth, industrial users have been taking a conservative assessment of their sales growth in the last quarter (January-March) of the fiscal year 2024-2025 and hence have been reducing bookings with large integrated mills. At the same time, market intermediaries have been facing liquidity challenges and smaller firms exhausting their bank working capital credit limits have not been restocking either during the year-end, the sources said.
Citing trade-level information and vessel arrival data, the sources said that in the last week of December a total of 90,000 mt of imports would have arrived at ports, in addition to the estimated 270,000 mt arriving in the earlier weeks of the month.
“Even the Indian rupee touching an historical low of INR 85.50 to the US dollar is not acting as any barrier to imports. The protracted process and delay in announcing in any tariff barriers to such imports has severely impacted sentiments among trade and mills,” a Mumbai-based distributor told SteelOrbis.
“We continue to maintain a negative outlook through the current fiscal as imports will not abate. In fact, we expect it to rise as major economies in the EU and US have imposed or planned higher tariffs, which will trigger a rise in ex-China material to find more prominence in the Indian market,” he added.
$1 = INR 85.50