Indian hot rolled coil (HRC) exporters have remained focused on moderate-volume sales in the Gulf region and some sales to Turkey, fetching higher realizations there than in Asia, where trades remained at a halt with buyers largely turning down any valuations higher than $890/mt CFR, SteelOrbis has learned from trade and industry circles.
Ex-India tradable HRC prices have remained at $840-880/mt FOB for now.
However, the outlook for the medium term has improved slightly over the past week, with reports of buyers from the EU returning for price negotiations for January shipments, although no new deals have been reported so far.
Sources said that the EU buyers have been seeking offers for January amid expectations of new tariff quotas becoming available then and, though deals and prices are yet to materialize, the likely emergence of EU buying has been a positive for the current sluggish export market.
Meanwhile, in the Asian region, sources said that, with Vietnam continuing to be practically out of the market, Indian exporters are generally not submitting offers. The lowest price level possible from an Indian mill was assessed at $910/mt CFR or so, translating to around $850/mt FOB. Sources said that Indian mills are unwilling to adjust offers to as low as $800-810/mt FOB to meet valuation demands of scattered small-volume buyers in the Asian region.
As a result, the main focus of Indian sellers has been the MENA region. In particular, at least 20,000 mt of Indian HRC was sold to Turkey at $920/mt CFR slightly more than a week ago. This price corresponds to around $860/mt FOB or slightly below.
A week ago, a lot of ex-India HRC was traded to the UAE at around $950-960/mt CFR, which translates to $880/mt FOB or lower depending on the freight. But sources also report two small-volume bookings for HRC at lower prices, which, however, may be for pipe-making SS400 HRC. A Gujarat-based steel mill in the west reported a trade with a Doha-based trading firm at around $820-830/mt FOB, while an eastern India-based mill reported a trade with a Gulf trading firm at $830-840/mt FOB.
“Indian exporters are already out of the Asian markets. Buyers in this region even at valuations of $880-890/mt CFR are very few. This has impacted Indian export volumes since last month. Indian HRC exports during August were not more than 400,000 mt, down from levels of 800,000 mt per month in the March-June period,” a steel sector analyst with a Mumbai-based financial advisory firm said. “We expect Indian exports to remain at lower levels with modest-volume deals confined to the Gulf region. Exporters will need to wait for the EU buyers to complete price negotiations and conclude deals for January onwards for export volumes to improve,” he added.