How long will the US HDG price downtrend continue?

Monday, 09 October 2017 23:18:13 (GMT+3)   |   San Diego
       

Falling scrap prices, still-healthy inventory levels and end-of-year seasonal factors continue to place downward pricing pressure on the US domestic hot dipped galvanized (HDG) and Galvalume markets.

Late last week, SteelOrbis reported that shredded scrap in the Midwest was trading down $30/mt, while busheling scrap was trading down $40/mt. On the East coast, shredded scrap traded down at $35-$40/mt while busheling scrap traded down between $41-$50/mt.

As such, the decrease has contributed to a downtrend in pricing for US HDG products, which have softened by at least $2.00 cwt. ($44/mt or $40/nt) in the past seven days, sources note, adding that deeper discounts continue to be available to buyers who are looking to buy significant tonnage.

“The downtrend in scrap prices this month is helping to feed the decline in US prices.  People are hesitant to buy if they don’t need to since prices are soft, which is helping to cause an inventory drawdown,” a source said. “However, when you take into account that import arrivals are decreasing, there’s a potential to see a spike in prices come January.”

Current price points for US HDG coil are listed in the chart below.

  Cwt. Metric Ton (mt) Net ton (nt) Change from last week
US domestic HDG base price $37-$39 $816-$860 $740-$780 down $2.50 cwt. On the bottom end, down $2.00 cwt. On the top end 
         
0.012”x40.875” G30        
ex-Midwest mill $45-$47 $992-$1036 $900-$940 down $2.00 cwt. 
         
0.019”x48” G90        
ex-Midwest mill $45-$47 $992-$1036 $900-$940 down $2.00 cwt. 
         
US domestic Galvalume base price        
ex-Midwest mill $37-$39 $816-$860 $740-$780 down $2.50 cwt. On the bottom end, down $2.00 cwt. On the top end 
         
0.019x41.5625 Gr80/AZ55        
ex-Midwest mill $45-$47 $992-$1036 $900-$940 down $2.00 cwt. 

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