Have US HDG prices finally bottomed?

Spot market prices within the US domestic hot dipped galvanized (HDG) coil markets seem to have leveled since our last report a week ago.  The reason for this, sources note, may be tied to an uptick in orders and inquiries.  “A lot of people think this may be the bottom of the market,” the source said. “All of the people who have been sitting on the sidelines, waiting for the slide to finally stop, seem to have woken up.”

Others, however, say they prefer to wait a bit longer before making any purchasing decisions.

“We’d rather miss the bottom and buy just as things are starting to head back up, then buy today and see prices fall off more,” the source said.
And while buyers can’t seem to agree whether the US HDG price slide is finally over, they do agree that a turnaround in the market would be welcome.

Prices have been on a sharp decline since mid-April, when average transaction price for base price HDG coil hit its 2019 peak of $43 cwt. ($948/mt or $860/nt), ex-mill.  Year-over-year, prices are also down starkly.  In mid-June 2018, SteelOrbis reported base price HDG coil was being sold at an average of $50 cwt. ($1,102/mt or $1,000/nt), ex-mill.

Current US HDG spot market prices are listed in the chart below.