Ex-China HRC offers move up, strong fundamental improvement still doubtful

This week has continued to show positive sentiments in the Chinese HRC market following the uptrend in China’s local and futures prices last week. Accordingly, ex-China export prices from both big and smaller mills have moved up this week. However, some trading companies have continued to try selling short at lower prices, due to the resistance to the uptrend from most foreign customers.

At present, export offers for boron-added SS400 HRC given by major Chinese mills are at $610-630/mt FOB for September shipment, with a midpoint at $620/mt FOB, up by $20/mt week on week. At the same time, offers from smaller mills have settled at $595-600/mt FOB, up by $25/mt CFR on average over the past week. According to market insiders, this increase was mainly attributed to higher local and futures prices in China, which increased on the back of slightly higher demand coupled with decreased inventories for construction and flat steel.

At the same time, the tradable level for SS400 HRC has been heard at $580-610/mt FOB, depending on destination, compared to $560-600/mt FOB last week. New Chinese offers for SS400 HRC from traders have increased to $620-630/mt CFR Vietnam, up by $30/mt week on week, though several deals have been reported at $600-610/mt CFR this week. “Customers in Vietnam have increased their bids to around $600-610/mt CFR from $575-585/mt CFR last week, but demand is very slow and only those who are in urgent need can accept higher offers,” an international trader told SteelOrbis. At the same time, ex-China SS400 HRC offers have increased to $650/mt CFR Pakistan, up by $25-30/mt week on week.

“We think that despite the positive trend in futures and local HRC markets in China, the market still lacks a real direction amid extremely weak demand,” a market insider said.

During the given week, HRC prices in the Chinese domestic market have seen big rises amid slightly improved demand, coupled with lower supply due to the decrease in inventories and production. The rebounding futures prices exerted a positive impact on the market. In particular, domestic HRC prices in China are at RMB 4,010-4,060/mt ($594-601/mt) ex-warehouse on August 2, with the average price level RMB 174/mt ($26/mt) higher as compared to July 26, according to SteelOrbis’ data.

Meanwhile, the expected visit of US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan has resulted in uncertainties in the whole market, and, according to some sources, have started to affect sentiments in the financial market.

As of August 2, HRC futures at the Shanghai Futures Exchange are standing at RMB 4,053/mt ($601/mt), increasing by RMB 179/mt ($26.5/mt) or 4.6 percent since July 26.

$1 = RMB 6.7462