Are US HRC, CRC prices cresting the top of the bell curve?

Friday, 31 March 2023 22:41:04 (GMT+3)   |   San Diego
       

US domestic hot and cold rolled coil prices have continued to climb in the past week, however, whereas the previously-seen upward momentum of HRC prices appears to be slowing, CRC prices continue to have strength.

Current, US HRC prices have firmed by $1.00 cwt. ($22/mt or $20/nt) on the top end since our last report a week ago and are now trending at approximately $55-$58 cwt. ($1,213-$1,279/mt or $1,100-$1,160/nt), FOB mill.

US domestic CRC prices, on the other hand, are now being heard at approximately $69-$71 cwt. ($1,521-$1,565/mt or $1,380-$1,420/nt), FOB mill, against a range of $66.50-$68.50 cwt. ($1,466-$1,510/mt or $1,330-$1,370/nt), FOB mill, a week ago.

Similar to previous weeks, transactions slightly above these ranges for small-tonnage orders have been heard.

Sources continue to report a strong belief that the market is “finally scratching the top of the current run-up.”  And while some have said they’re concerned that prices will start to turn at the start of Q3, others think prices will start to correct by the middle of Q2.

“Activity is fine but we’re not bursting at the seams with orders,” a source said. “I think we’ll see maybe one or two weeks of nominal increases before this thing starts to turn in the other direction.”

Also, of note, is news that David Joseph has started to put out cancellation notices for March scrap orders that have not been delivered yet. Some scrap market sources have confirmed they've heard chatter that mills may try take scrap prices down during the April buy cycle.

Flat rolled sources believe this could mean that the “writing is starting to appear on the wall.”

“Export [scrap cargo sales prices into Turkey] is starting to come down and the [flat rolled steel] market as a whole has already started to brace for a downturn,” a final source said. “I think if the mills are going to try to take scrap down, that’s indicative of what’s to come.”


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