General: The revised GDP number for Q4 2008 reflects more accurately the steep decline of the US economy than the preliminary number released in January. It is hard to find good news. February saw a slight uptick in car sales over January but still fell far short of last year. The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) in February saw an ever-so-slight increase over January and consumer spending in January inched up 0.6%. But the two problem sectors, housing and automotive, remain in a deep crisis. The fall in industrial production is beginning to get worrisome since it does not bode well for the job market. Unemployment is increasing and the public is getting numb by job losses in the hundreds of thousands every month now. Consequently, consumer confidence is at a record low, delaying a possible economic rebound for the time being. The financial sector continues to be in disarray. The federal government injects more funds into banks and investments houses but no substantial capital finds its way into the economy as of yet.
GDP: -6.2% in Q4 2008 compared to Q3; on an annual level GDP 2008 rose 1.1 percent compared to 2007.
Consumer Prices: January 2009 saw a slight 0.3% increase over December; for the past 12 months per the end of January there was no change with the statistical percentage rate coming in at zero.
Consumer Confidence: 25.0 in February, down from 37.4 in January. November 2008 still saw a 44 level which has been decreasing ever since.
Industrial Production: -1.4% in February from the previous month. For the past twelve months the decline was a steep 11.2%. Capacity utilization fell to 70.9%, matching its lowest level since this data started being recorded in 1967.
Producer Prices: +0.8% in January from the previous month; -1.0% from twelve months ago
Unemployment: 8.1% in February. The month saw yet another stunning job loss of 651,000.
Trade Deficit: $36.0bn in January (down from $ 39.9bn in December). Exports were down $7.6bn from December.
Housing: Housing starts in January fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 466,000 units. This is 16.8% below December's number of 560,000 and an almost incomprehensible 56.2% below January of last year. Housing permits in January fell 4.8% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 521,000 units. This is 50.5% below January 2008. Existing home sales in January declined to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.49 million units. This is 5.3% below the revised December figure and 8.6% below January 2008. At the current sales rate the inventory of unsold homes translates into 9.6 months, which is slightly up from December's 9.4 months. In January, the national median existing-home price for all types was $170,300, down 14.8% from a year ago when it was $199,800.
Automotive Industry: 405,347 units were produced in February or 54.9% less than last year. In the first two months of the year 688,825 units were produced or 60.3% less than last year. In February 688,909 units of light vehicles were sold. This is a slight increase over January but a whopping 41.4% under February 2007. In the first two months of 2009 the decline of total sales was 39.4% compared to last year. Without huge incentives in the form of deep discounts and no interest loans, the sales volume in February would have been even more dismal. Despite a drop of 55.1% to last year, the Ford F Series pickup remains to best selling light vehicle in the US.
Steel Production: 4.1 million metric tons in January or 52.7% less than last year.
Purchasing Managers' Index: According to the Institute for Supply Management the PMI rose ever so slightly to 35.8 from January's 35.6. However, it is remains deeply stuck in the "contracting" direction.
Other data in that report were as follows:
New Orders: 33.1 (33.2 January) - trend is "contracting" for 15th consecutive month
Production: 36.3 (32.1) - "contracting"
Inventories: 37.0 (37.5) - "contracting"
Customers' Inventories: 51.0 (55.5) - "too high"
Backlog Orders: 31.0 (29.5) - "contracting"
Manufacturing Sector: "contracting" for 13th consecutive month but at a slower rate
Overall Economy: "contracting" for the fifth consecutive month but at a slower rate
Currency: US$1 = Euro 0.78 as of March 11 (0.65 a year ago)