General: US consumers and economists alike are waiting desperately for the nation's economic fortunes to change. But the stimulus package, record-low interest rates and government help for many struggling companies will all take time to find their way into the economic growth cycle. It will take more time before there will be a discernible and solid turnaround. For the time being, the news from the economic front remains bleak. Preliminary numbers for Q1 show another 6 percent drop of GDP. Chrysler finally went into Chapter 11 bankruptcy and will likely be taken over by Fiat of Italy and the United Autoworkers Union. General Motors might not be far behind with their own bankruptcy filing. After some hopeful signs in February, housing starts and sales have resumed their slide.
GDP: -6.1% in Q1 2009, following a similar decline in Q4 2008 of 6.3%
Consumer Prices: -0.4% in March (+4.0% a year ago)
Consumer Confidence: 39.2 in April, encouragingly higher than the 26.0 in March
Industrial Production: -12.8% in March compared to last year
Producer Prices: -3.5% in March from a year ago
Unemployment: 8.5% in March
Trade Deficit: $26.0bn in February (down from $36.0bn in January)
Housing: Housing starts in March fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 510,000 units. This is 10.8% below February’s revised number and 48.4% below March of last year. Housing permits in March dropped 9.0% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 513,000 units. This is 45.0% below March 2008. Existing home sales in March declined 3.0% from February to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.57 million units. This is 7.1% below March 2008. The national median existing-home price for all types was $175,200, down 12.4% from a year ago but 4.2% ahead of February.
Automotive Industry: 475,008 units were produced in March or 46.2% less than last year. In first the three months of the year, 1,156,442 units were produced or 54.0% less than last year. In March, 857,735 units of light vehicles were sold. This is 36.8% under March 2008. In the first three months of 2009 the decline of total sales was 38.4% compared to last year. The Ford F Series pickup remains the best-selling light vehicle in the US with 32,728 units sold in March or 39.9% less than last year.
Steel Production: 4.1 million metric tons in March or 52.7% less than last year. In the first three months of the year, 12.1 million metric tons were produced or 52.5% less than last year.
Purchasing Managers’ Index: According to the Institute for Supply Management, the PMI rose to 40.1% in April from 36.8% in March. However, it remains deeply stuck in the “contracting” direction.
Other data in that report were as follows:
New Orders: 47.2 (from 41.2 in March) – trend is “contracting” for 17th consecutive month, but at a “slower” pace
Production: 40.4 (36.4) – “contracting”for eighth consecutive month, “slower” pace
Inventories: 33.6 (32.2) – “contracting” for the 36th consecutive month, “slower” pace
Customers’ Inventories: 49.5 (54.0) – “too low” (from “too high” in March)
Manufacturing Sector: “contracting” for 15th consecutive month, “slower” pace
Overall Economy: “contracting” for the seventh consecutive month, “slower” pace