Asked at the announcement in Tokyo of the worldsteel short-range global steel demand outlook whether protectionist measures such as the US steel tariffs will be eased during the remainder of 2018 and in 2019 or whether they would continue to escalate, association director general Edwin Basson said that, if one went back in time to the previous round of protectionist measures around 25 years ago, they did not have a serious impact on trade flows, but did have an impact on the prices of products. He went on to say that this time also the steel industry has not yet observed a dramatic change in the direction of trade flows, but has seen a change in the valuation of products. On the same issue, he reiterated that trade measures will not cause markets to collapse, but will make prices higher in some markets. Free trade is the best for everyone, he said, in that it allows a level playing field for everyone.
In answer to a comment that this latest worldsteel outlook for global steel demand shows an improvement over its outlook issued in April this year and so possibly the steel demand outlook could be even better next April despite risks, Basson said he hoped this would be so, referring to the robust environment which existed despite all issues. A lot would depend on China, he said, and on whether there would be stimulus measures. He went on to say that China seems to be performing at close to peak steel demand, but then every year the industry is surprised by a stimulus, etc., in China. If anything, he added, China will perform better than the zero percent growth predicted by worldsteel for steel demand in China in 2019. In addition, the worldsteel director general stated that, from what he knew of political intentions in China, there is a clear understanding in the country that they do not want to upset markets. He emphasized the huge sacrifices the Chinese have made in order to reduce capacity, referring in passing to the laying off of 500,000 steel workers. After such sacrifices, he cannot see unbridled exports coming from China, describing the behaviour he sees in China in this regard as being “well-balanced”.