At its 52nd annual meeting of worldsteel held in Tokyo on October 16-17, worldsteel (World Steel Association) has released its short-range outlook for 2018 and 2019, predicting that global steel demand will increase by 3.9 percent to 1.66 billion metric tons in 2018 (regarding the 2018 figure see the note below on China) and will rise further by 1.4 percent to 1.68 billion metric tons in 2019, year on year.
As regards China, its steel demand is forecast to rise by 6.0 percent year on year in 2018 to 781.0 million metric tons and to move sideways in 2019 compared to 2018. The dynamics of steel-using sectors suggest growth of 2.0 percent in China in 2018 in real terms. Accordingly real global growth of steel demand in 2018 is 2.1 percent. The disparity comes from an underestimation of 2017 steel use that had been supplied by the illegal induction furnaces, worldsteel stated.
In Asia (including China) and Oceania, steel demand is nominally forecast to rise by 5.0 percent in 2018 to 1.12 billion metric tons and to increase by 1.3 percent to 1.13 billion metric tons, year on year
In terms of the major regions, steel demand in the EU is predicted to rise by 2.2 percent in the current year to 166.6 million metric tons and to increase further by 1.7 percent in 2019 to 169.4 million metric tons. In particular, in Germany steel demand is foreseen to rise by 0.5 percent in 2018 to 41.2 million metric tons and by 1.7 percent in 2019 to 41.9 million metric tons. Italy will see a 3.8 percent rise in steel demand in the current year to 25.6 million metric tons and a slower 1.0 percent rise in demand in 2019 to 25.9 million mt.
The NAFTA region is expected to see a 1.7 percent growth in steel demand for 2018 to 143.2 million metric tons and to record a 1.0 percent rise in demand in 2019 to 144.7 million metric tons. Steel demand in Central and South America is foreseen to grow by 3.4 percent in 2018 to 43.2 million mt and by 4.3 percent in 2019 to 45.1 million mt.
As regards the CIS, its demand for steel is foreseen to grow by 1.4 percent to 54.8 million metric tons in the current year and is expected to rise by 0.9 percent in 2019 to 55.3 million metric tons, year on year. Steel demand in the Middle East is forecast to move up by 2.1 percent to 54.5 million metric tons in 2018 and to rise further by 1.2 percent to 55.1 million metric tons in 2019.
Turning to the ASEAN-5 countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam), demand is forecast to increase by 3.8 percent in 2018 to 73.7 million mt and to expand by 6.2 percent in 2019 to 78.3 million mt, year on year. Steel demand in the MENA region is predicted to increase by 2.8 percent in the current year compared to last year to 73.7 million mt and to rise by 2.2 percent year on year to 75.3 million mt next year.