Worldsteel in Monterrey: Global steel demand to rise by 3.9% in 2019, 1.7% in 2020

Monday, 14 October 2019 21:49:46 (GMT+3)   |   Istanbul
       

At its 53rd annual meeting held in Monterrey, Mexico, on October 14-15, worldsteel (World Steel Association) has released its short-range outlook (SRO) report for 2019 and 2020, predicting that global steel demand will grow by 3.9 percent to 1.775 billion metric tons in 2019 and will by increase by a further 1.7 percent to 1.8057 billion metric tons in 2020, year on year.

As regards China, its steel demand is forecast to rise by 7.8 percent year on year in 2019 to 900.1 million metric tons and to increase by a further 1.0 percent in 2020 compared to 2019 to 909.1 million mt. In comparison, the year-on-year increase rates for the same respective periods in the rest of the world excluding China will be 0.2 percent to 874.9 million metric tons and 2.5 percent to 896.6 million metric tons, driven by 4.1 percent growth in the emerging and developing economies excluding China.

In Asia (including China) and Oceania, steel demand is forecast to rise by 6.2 percent in 2019 to 1.2481 billion metric tons and to increase by 1.8 percent to 1.270 billion metric tons in 2020, year on year.

In terms of the major regions, steel demand in the EU is predicted to decline by 1.2 percent in the current year to 166.8 million metric tons and to recover by 1.1 percent in 2020 to 168.6 million metric tons. In particular, in Germany steel demand is foreseen to contract by 6.0 percent in 2019 to 37.2 million metric tons and to indicate a recovery of 1.5 percent in 2020 to 37.8 million metric tons. Italy will see a 2.6 percent rise in steel demand in the current year to 26.9 million metric tons and a further 1.9 percent increase in demand in 2020 to 27.5 million mt.

The NAFTA region is expected to see a 0.6 percent increase in steel demand for 2019 to 145.1 million metric tons, rising by a further 0.8 percent in 2020 to 142.6 million metric tons. In the respective years, demand in the US will increase by 1.0 percent and 0.4 percent to 100.8 million metric tons and 101.2 million metric tons, respectively. Steel demand in Central and South America is foreseen to drop by 0.4 percent in 2019 to 43.8 million mt, before recovering by 3.9 percent in 2020 to 45.5 million mt.

As regards the CIS, its demand for steel is foreseen to grow by 4.8 percent to 58.0 million metric tons in the current year, growing by a further 2.0 percent in 2020 to 59.2 million metric tons, year on year. In the respective periods, Russia’s demand will expand by 5.0 percent and 1.5 percent to 43.2 million metric tons and 43.9 million metric tons. Steel demand in the Middle East is forecast to contract by 4.6 percent to 47.9 million metric tons in 2019 and to see a very slight recovery of 0.2 percent to 48.0 million metric tons in 2020.

Turning to the ASEAN-5 countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam), demand is forecast to increase by 3.1 percent in 2019 to 75.9 million mt and to expand at a stronger rate of 5.6 percent in 2020 to 83.9 million mt, year on year. Steel demand in the MENA region is predicted to decline by 4.0 percent in the current year compared to last year to 66.1 million mt, before recovering by 1.1 percent year on year to 66.9 million mt next year.

Worldsteel predicts that steel demand in India will increase by 5.0 percent and 7.0 percent respectively in 2019 and 2020 to 101.6 million metric tons and 108.7 million metric tons, with its demand for both the years in question, thus surpassing the anticipated demand volumes in the US.


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