Worldsteel has forecast that global steel demand will rise by seven percent in the current year to 1.62 billion metric tons, while predicting a further rise of 1.6 percent to 1.65 billion metric tons in 2018, both year on year. The announcement was made at the 51st annual worldsteel meeting in Brussels on October 16, at a press briefing on the short-range outlook for global steel demand chaired by T. V. Narendran, managing director of Indian steel producer Tata Steel and chairman of the worldsteel economics committee, who commented that the world steel industry is looking at significantly better times than in recent year. These predictions compare with one percent year-on-year growth in world steel demand in 2016 to 1.51 billion metric tons. However, worldsteel pointed out that special mention needs to be made of the impact of China on the forecast growth figure for the current year. China closed most of its outdated induction furnaces in 2017, a category which was generally not previously captured in official figures. The demand satisfied by this sector of the market is now satisfied by the mainstream steelmakers in China and thus is now captured in the official demand statistics in 2017, driving up the demand forecast for China, and thus the global demand figure.
Global steel demand excluding China is predicted to rise by 2.6 percent to 856.4 million metric tons in 2017 and to expand by three percent in 2018 to 882.4 million metric tons, year on year.
As regards China on the other hand, its steel demand is forecast to rise by 12.4 percent year on year in 2017 to 765.7 million metric tons and to move sideways in 2018 compared to 2017. Excluding the induction furnace issue, worldsteel estimates China’s steel demand growth in 2017 at three percent year on year. worldsteel said that the Chinese economy, which has been gradually decelerating, is increasingly supported by consumption while investment continues to decelerate. At the same time, government stimuli, particularly a moderate boost to the construction program, contributed to increased GDP growth in 2017.
In terms of other major regions, steel demand in the EU is predicted to rise by 2.5 percent in the current year to 162.1 million metric tons and to move up by 1.4 percent in 2018 to 164.3 million metric tons.
The NAFTA region is expected to see a 4.9 percent growth in steel demand this year to 138.7 million metric tons but to record a 1.2 percent rise in demand in 2018 to 140.4 million metric tons. Steel demand in Central and South America is predicted to grow by 2.5 percent in 2017 to 40.4 million mt and by 4.7 percent in 2018 to 42.3 million mt.
As for the CIS, its demand for steel is foreseen to grow by 3.6 percent to 51.1 million metric tons in the current year and is expected to rise by 3.8 percent in 2018 to 53 million metric tons, year on year. Steel demand in the Middle East is forecast to increase by 1.5 percent to 52.9 million metric tons in 2017 and to rise by 4.8 percent to 56.5 million metric tons in 2018.
As for the ASEAN region, demand is forecast to increase by 4.8 percent in 2017 to 77.7 million mt and to rise by 6.8 percent in 2018 to 83.0 million mt, year on year. Steel demand in the MENA is predicted to move sideways in the current year compared to last year at 72.6 million mt and to rise by 4.5 percent year on year to 75.8 million mt next year.
Turkish steel demand is expected to resume growth momentum in 2018, rising by six percent to 35.5 million mt, following a disappointing 1.7 percent negative growth to 33.5 million mt in the current year.