Julian Allwood at worldsteel in Brussels: Scrap supply will treble up to 2050

Wednesday, 18 October 2017 10:08:08 (GMT+3)   |   Istanbul
       

During the future scenario thinking segment of the 51st annual general meeting of worldsteel (World Steel Association) held in Brussels on October 16-17, Prof. Julian Allwood, professor of engineering and the environment at the University of Cambridge, gave a presentation on, as he said, some interesting ideas on how the steel industry can progress.

He began by stating that in 2008 two-thirds of steel production was iron ore-based, while one-third was scrap-based. Typically, he said, the stock of steel in developed nations reaches a plateau of 10 metric tons per person, and this fact can be used as a basis to make predictions for the future. Considering the question of when this steel will come back for recycling, he said the average lifespan of steel products is 38 years, as low as 15 years for steel in cars and above 60 years for steel used in buildings. He went on to say that, accordingly, we can make predictions for the supply of scrap up to 2050. In this context, he said it was very unlikely that primary-produced steel - steel produced from iron ore - would record faster growth. “We have all the blast furnaces now that we will ever need,” he affirmed, while on the other hand he said that output of secondary-produced steel - steel produced using scrap - will treble up to 2050, in line with the anticipated trebling of scrap supply in the same period.

At present, Prof. Allwod stated, steel production using scrap is mainly focused on producing reinforcing bars, while auto vehicles are a major source of scrap. This results in the problem of other metals found in auto scrap, tin and especially copper, ending up in reinforcing bars. Steps can be taken, he said, to separate out copper from auto scrap and new techniques are already being developed in this regard. The steel industry will not be able to use all the available scrap - expected, as mentioned, to treble up to 2050 - unless something is done about copper. Summing up this issue, he said that copper is a problem, but we can do something about it.

On the issue of climate change, Prof. Allwood said that it is not possible to replace all fossil fuels with renewable, whereas we can start to use less energy. The steel industry has been one of the most innovative sectors in terms of getting work done on energy efficiency, he said, though this has the downside that there is now less room for further improvement in the industry on the issue. On the other hand, he said, a quarter of steel produced never actually gets made into products, while he pointed out that in the automotive sector car producers in fact throw away more steel than they use as they move from coils to blanks, to cut-out blanks, etc. Greater efficiencies can be made in this area, he indicated, while also stating that there is also scope for greater use of steel in combination with other products. In the UK, for example, more steel is used in construction than is actually necessary, he said.

In his conclusion, Prof. Allwood stated that in the future the steel industry will see a move away from iron ore to scrap, stressing that there is actually no other choice but to make more steel from scrap. If we decide to act on climate change, there must be a rapid decrease in the number of blast furnaces. In addition, he said that steelmakers are “extraordinarily ill-connected to customers” and claimed that stockists could in fact be removed, while he advised steelmakers to move into downstream processing. On this point, in answer to a question after his presentation, he advised that the “richly capitalized steel companies with spare cash” at the worldsteel event should buy downstream processors and focus on reducing wastage of metal, while adding value, with the advantage that this approach would also be low risk. In a final point, he said the inevitability of using less steel due to climate change needs to become a part of corporate strategy.


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