IABr, the Brazilian steel association, has upgraded its estimates for the local steel industry in 2018, despite concerns over the ongoing negotiations with the US to exclude Brazil from Section 232 tariffs.
Domestic steel sales in 2018 should rise 6.6 percent, year-on-year, to 18 million mt. The association estimated in December last year domestic steel sales to grow 4.1 percent, year-on-year, to 17.4 million this year.
IABr also updated its forecast for apparent steel consumption. The trade group expects apparent steel consumption in Brazil to improve 6.9 percent, year-on-year, to 20.5 million mt, instead of a 4.9 percent growth, year-on-year, as it had previously estimated.
Crude steel production in 2018 is expected to rise 8.6 percent, year-on-year, to 37.3 million mt, up from its previous estimate of an 8 percent growth year-on-year.
IABr also estimated Brazilian steel exports this year to improve 10.7 percent, year-on-year, to 16.9 million mt.
The local steel association said the outlook will depend on the “positive” result of the on-going negotiations with the US, as well as the Mercosur-European Union discussions.
IABr noted that no matter the final outcome of the Brazil-US Section 232 negotiations, the change in US trade policy will lead to “trade deviations.”
“That will make even more important for Brazil to have agile and efficient commercial defense mechanisms,” it said in a statement.