Freight market report & expectations.Sep 13th.by Densay A.S.
Baltic handymax index: 7662 points by August 22, 2002
Baltic handymax index: 7926 points by September 12, 2002
Rise of 1-month period: 264 points %1.03
It can be observed that all our predictions mentioned in our previous report on August 26,2002 turned out to be true.
Freight market for Handy/Handymax type ships started to show a rising tendency, particularly for cargoes ex-Black sea and Continent.
Main reasons for the rising tendency are as follows;
1- The increase seen in
trading volume worldwide and new orders particularly from the grain traders.
2- As the
freight market in
Far East is likely to be in a negative condition in the short run, vessels at the Atlantic ask for more premium prices to depart to
Far East.
3- The rise in fuel costs
4- The possibility that interference to
Iraq may turn into a war including the near countries
5- Far Eastern economy is giving new orders due to the better recovery than expected
Especially the modern 40.000mt and over deadweight ship supply in Continent and Black sea markets is facing serious problems. Howsoever a fall in shipments to this area is caused by purchases in steel industry made by
Taiwan and
China, many shipments to the Persian gulf and especially other merchandise shipments overcompensate the deficiency.
We expect the rise in
freight prices to go on at least for a short period of time. As we review the ship positions in Continent and Black sea markets to mid October, although there is an increase in number of ships, there are more goods to be shipped. We recommend the producers effecting sales from October onwards not to wait too long before concluding their bookings of cargoes with reliable ship owners from the current
freight price levels.
According to our sources:
A trader is in the market for his
billet cargo of 35/40.000mt Dammam at a rate of around $20/mt. However indicative
freight rates are around $24/mt.
A foreign trader paid a
freight rate of $21/mt for its cargo of 45.000mt Nemrut/
Taiwan.
A producer is willing to book at $22/mt for his cargo of 45/50.000mt Nemrut/3 port Persian gulf. However the best price available is $25/mt.
A producer gave a 44.000mt Diliskelesi/2 Persian gulf cargo to an American shipowner at a rate of $24/mt.
A producer is in the market for a cargo of 30.000mt Nemrut/Jubail at a rate of around $25/mt. (20/25 Sep., 4.000 SHINC/LO)
A producer is in the market for a cargo of 40/42.000mt Marmara/Taichung(
Taiwan) at a rate of around $21/mt. (8/12 Oct.)
A producer is in the market for his
billet cargo of 20.000mt Hereke/Taichung(
Taiwan). (23/26 Sep., 4.000 SHEX/CQD)
A producer is in the market for a cargo of 30.000mt Marmara/Kelang
Malaysia port LO for late October shipment. However indicative rates are around $25/mt.
A producer is in the market for his
rebar cargo of 15.000mt Iskenderun/
Hong Kong at a rate of around $25/mt. (4.000/CQD)
A producer is in the market for his
rebar cargo of 15.000mt Marmara/
Singapore at a rate of around $25/mt. (spot, 3.000 SHEX/LO)
Indicative
freight rates for ships 40-45.000 dwt ex-Black Sea with destination
Far East are around $13.500. If a redelivery from Persian gulf is considered because the total lead time is very short and an interference to
Iraq and the possibility of a rise in war premiums is in charge daily rates are around $14.500.
Freight market for scrap shipments for Continent/ Turkish ports:
Forecasts stated in our previous report on August 26,2002 turned out to be true for this region as well. As from today, the Continent market is the strongest region in the
freight market. Apart from steel
scrap grain, cement, steel and other goods are disposed to the market almost everyday. Since there are no suitable vessels in Continent market, vessels in Mediterranean area and even at West African ports are ballasted to Continent market.
Continent / USA gulf daily
freight offers are around $8.500-9.000
Continent / Mediterranean
scrap offers around $9.000
Continent /
Far East freight offers around $12.000
Latest booking reports:
A producer paid a
freight rate of $11.50/mt for a
UK/Nemrut cargo with 52 stowage.
A producer paid a
freight rate of $13.50/mt for a cargo of Continent/Diliskelesi with 55 stowage.
A producer paid a
freight rate of $13.50/mt for a cargo of Continent/Nemrut with 55 stowage.
Naporano booked 45.000mt USEC/Nemrut cargo at afreight rate of $13.50/mt with low stowage.
Latest market reports:
Noporano is in the market for his 45.000mt
scrap cargo of USEC/Diliskelesi with 44 stowage at a
freight rate of $14.50/mt.
A producer is in the market for his 30.000mt cargo of Ghent/Marmara with 52 stowage.
A producer is in the market for his 30-35.000mt cargo of Continent/Diliskelesi on
freight basis.
According to our sources, 8
scrap cargoes booked for shipments between 13 September – 20 October will be shipped from Continent ports.
We think; chances of finding a suitable vessel will become very limited very soon even if higher
freight rates are offered to shipowners. Therefore our recommendation to potential charterers is to complete their fixtures timely before falling into spot market.
DENSAY DENIZCILIK VE TICARET A.S
ATASEHIR BULVARI 42 O BLOK KAT 16
ATASEHIR 81120 ISTANBUL /
TURKEY
TEL : + 90 216 455 35 95
FAX : +90 216 455 35 99
COMTEXT A45TR651 TLX : 36897
e-mail: densay@densay.com