The trend in Canadian housing starts was 206,171 units in October 2018, compared to 207,809 units in September 2018, according to a report from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). This trend measure is a six-month moving average of the monthly seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR) of housing starts.
"The national trend in housing starts declined for a fourth consecutive month in October, which leaves the trend at its lowest level since February 2017," said Bob Dugan, CMHC's chief economist. "However, despite declining for several months, the trend remains slightly above its long-run average because it follows historically elevated levels of activity in 2017."
CMHC uses the trend measure as a complement to the monthly SAAR of housing starts to account for considerable swings in monthly estimates and obtain a more complete picture of Canada's housing market. In some situations analyzing only SAAR data can be misleading, as they are largely driven by the multi-unit segment of the market which can vary significantly from one month to the next.
The standalone monthly SAAR of housing starts for all areas in Canada was 205,925 units in October, up from 189,730 units in September. The SAAR of urban starts increased by 8.6 percent in October to 191,964 units. Multiple urban starts increased by 16.8 percent to 145,442 units in October while single-detached urban starts decreased by 10.7 percent to 46,522 units.
Rural starts were estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 13,961 units.