The Australian Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics (BREE) has forecast a six percent year-on-year rise for Australian met coal exports in 2013. The metallurgical coal exports of Australia, the world's largest exporter of metallurgical coal, are forecast to amount to 153 million mt in the current year. In 2014, exports are forecast to increase by a further 10 percent to total 168 million mt. Higher levels of exports are expected to be supported by production from a number of mines that are scheduled to start up in 2013, such as Anglo Coal's Grosvenor underground mine and BHP Billiton Mitsubishi Alliance's Daunia mine.
BREE reports that contract prices for high quality metallurgical coal for delivery in the second quarter of 2013 were settled at around US$172/mt, increasing from US$165/mt in the first quarter. Contract prices are forecast to average at US$162/mt for 2013 as a whole due to continued weak spot prices. According to BREE, average contract prices for 2014 are forecast to remain at around US$160/mt.
In 2013, China's metallurgical coal imports are forecast to increase by 16 percent a year to reach 61 million mt. Following a dip in imports in 2012, India is forecast to return to an uptrend in imports in 2013 and 2014, with India's imports forecast to total 23 million mt in 2014. Imports into Japan are forecast to increase marginally over 2013 and 2014 to total 54 million mt in 2014.