51st IREPAS Meeting – Kiev, Ukraine, October 4, 2004

51st IREPAS Meeting – Kiev, Ukraine, October 4, 2004

51st IREPAS (International Rebar Producers Association) Meeting was held in Kiev, Ukraine on October 3-4. The event was once again sponsored by SteelOrbis. Of the 150+ participants, about one third was producers of long iron and steel products. In the first session, in which both producers and traders participated, macroeconomic data about the member countries and general ideas about upcoming months were presented. During the session, many of the participants mentioned that they expect a stable market conditions in the upcoming months, along with some concerns about the increase of raw material prices and freight rates. These comments were aptly summarized by the Chairman of IREPAS, Mr.Ugur Dalbeler of Colakoglu, Turkey, “…prices will steadily increase.” Other concerns were also mentioned about the uncertainty with the Chinese market, which is also present. It was a general view that there should be common policy between raw material suppliers and producers to keep the market conditions steady. The macroeconomic conditions of the member countries were generally optimistic with a few exceptions. To mention a few, Qatar expects an increase in both the total consumption and production, Spain expects strong demand, Greece is not too optimistic with the investments for the Olympic Games being over, Turkey is confident that the following year will be a good one and India expects a boom in the consumption until 2007. During the second session, which was only open to producers, price and tonnage data were presented for Q3 and Q4 of 2004 and Q1 of 2005. At the end of this session, general price tendency for Q1 of 2005 was forecasted. The average of the individually forecasted price tendencies was $400/mt for billet, $440-450/mt for rebar, $510-520/mt for mesh making quality wire rod, $530-540/mt for low carbon wire rod and $580/mt for high carbon wire rod. Producers have to think twice for some of the items listed above due to the uncertainty of scrap prices. It was also mentioned that margins between billet and rebar prices might get squeezed due to the lack of demand for rebar in the upcoming winter months. During the third and the last session, several presentations about the market conditions of various markets like the US and the Far East were presented. In summary, the expectancy is a stable market with an upward tendency.