Uncertainty in Chinese seamless pipe market

Thursday, 23 September 2010 11:54:02 (GMT+3)   |  
       

The seamless pipe market in China has lately been registering certain fluctuations. Over the past two weeks, domestic quotations of seamless pipes have remained almost unchanged with some increases by a maximum of RMB 100/mt seen; however, in US dollar terms prices have climbed by $10-25/mt due to currency fluctuations. At the same time, export quotations of seamless pipes from China have declined by $50-90/mt over the period under review due to a lack of buying from foreign customers. Trade cases have reduced exports of Chinese seamless line pipes over the last two years and have forced producers to turn to the domestic market for profits. However, demand from local buyers is also weak and transaction volumes are still poor. According to traders, the recent increase in pipe prices has been mainly attributable to the power rationing policy of the central government, which caused many pipe makers to lift their prices. Market participants have said that it will be difficult to sustain the rising trend inspired by government policy and that a correction will inevitably occur. Meanwhile, most round billet makers in China have raised their quotations by RMB 200-250/mt ($40-45/mt) over the past two weeks, with current prices having risen to RMB 4,900/mt ($730/mt) ex-works with 17 percent VAT. The seamless pipe market in China is likely to face more changes and fluctuations in the near future. It is thought that seamless pipe market participants will maintain a wait-and-see attitude for a certain while.

Chinese domestic prices of seamless pipes, 2"-8" grade B according to ASTM A106 or GB/8163, are varying at around RMB 5,600-6,000/mt ($835-895/mt) ex-works, including 17 percent VAT.

In August this year China produced 2.25 million mt of seamless pipes, 25.2 percent higher than in August 2009. Total production for the first eight months of this year was 16.4 million mt, up 18.7 percent over the same period last year.

Current export offers of seamless pipes from Chinese manufacturers for 2"-6" sch. 40 of grade B material according to ASTM A106/ASTM A53 are on average at $800-850/mt FOB, while 14"-24" sch. 40 pipes are at $890-950/mt FOB. Export offers of 2"-6" sch. 80 seamless pipes of grade B according to ASTM A106/A53 are being given at $830-930/mt FOB, while 14"-24" sch. 80 pipes are at $900-1,000/mt FOB.

Export quotations for 2"-4" tubing J55 as per API 5CT, plain ends, are in the range of $880-930/mt FOB, while quotations for 6"-8" casing are at $850-900/mt FOB.


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